So this is my first real blog post. I hope it's not too listy or drags on for too long or anything.
For Lent I decided to give up Facebook and Twitter. So obviously, upon my return I tweeted that I was back. I didn't decide to make a status update on Facebook until this morning. Once I woke up this morning I opened up my computer and checked out ESPN, Twitter, and Facebook, which was my old morning routine. As I was browsing through Twitter I saw all the sports guys were talking about Cody Zeller and Christian Watford and how they were coming back to Indiana for their sophomore and senior seasons. Zeller was listed at #6 on ESPN's Chad Ford's Big Board. Immediately after reading that he was returning to Indiana, I thought "Is this guy a moron?!? He's gonna be a top 10 pick!" One NBA Executive even said that they would take Zeller second in the draft. Second! And he's returning to school? Why in the world would he do that?
This is extremely similar to UNC freshman forward James Michael McAdoo. McAdoo was ranked #7 on Ford's Big Board and he announced last week that he would be returning to school for his sophomore season. Again, I thought "Is this guy a moron?!?" Why would someone rated so highly take the risk of returning to college?
After these thoughts crossed my mind, I resorted to my typical avenue of self-expression... my Facebook status. I promptly posted "Cody Zeller and James Michael McAdoo are idiots for staying in college. Just my opinion." And just like numerous other status updates, the comments poured in. Right now the comments are at 99, oh make that 100, and still growing. Surprisingly, most people that commented agreed with me. Not as surprising was the fact that my twin brother, Josh, disagreed. He says I don't have the right to question a guy's decision. Obviously, I disagree. Like most brothers, we frequently disagree and argue with each other. It doesn't help that he went to UNC. And I'm a terrible debater, so I'll admit that Josh has won the vast majority of our arguments over the years. But this time, I know I'm right and here's why.
1. They run the risk of losing MILLIONS of dollars!
James, I don't know if you followed the NBA Draft last year and the weeks that preceded it. But last year, your teammate at UNC, Harrison Barnes, made the decision to come back to school, in part to enhance his "brand," which I assume includes making himself better. Well, that didn't work out so well for ol' Harry. Jay Caspian King had a nice take for Grantland on the Black Falcon's "Brand" and how that thought process of Barnes' doesn't seem to have worked.
Barnes was considered a top 3 draft pick in the 2011 draft, and possibly the #1 overall pick. Sounds like a pretty sweet deal to me. #1 pick, can't get any better. But alas, Barnes returned to UNC, probably hurt his "brand" and saw his draft stock fall. We saw how Barnes couldn't create his own shot off the dribble, how he was one-dimensional, how he wasn't that quick or explosive, and how he struggled handling the ball (I said this last year, but that's neither here nor there). This year Barnes is rated the #6 player on Ford's Big Board, and that's only after Zeller and McAdoo announced that they would not enter into the draft. So before these announcements, he was rated #8. How big of a difference is that? Well let's see.
Let's pretend Barnes had been selected #2 overall last year by the Minnesota Timberwolves. Their real #2 pick, Derrick Williams, signed a contract for $14.4 million dollars over 3 years, with a team option for a 4th year, where he would make $6.3 million dollars. The player drafted #8 overall, Brandon Knight, signed a contract with the Detroit Pistons for $5.2 million over 2 years, with team options for a 3rd and 4th year, making $2.8 million and $3.5 million respectively. That's a huge difference! Now, luckily for Barnes, Zeller and McAdoo are returning to school, so he won't lose quite as much money, but he's still going to lose a significant amount of money. All because he returned to school. He was exposed. He was a consensus top 3 pick, and he saw that vanish.
Barnes wasn't the only consensus lottery pick that returned to school this past year. Last year, Terrance Jones of Kentucky, Perry Jones III from Baylor, and Jared Sullinger all were projected top 10 picks, and maybe top 5 picks. All of them returned to school for another year. All of them will be drafted lower than they would've last year. How can all 4 of these guys explain that??? Last year's draft class was one of the weakest in recent memory and was perfect for these players to leave because they were certain to be high picks. What in the world would make them all want to return to school? Were they wanting an education? I doubt it, but...
2. You SERIOUSLY think they like their classes and school enough to return to school?
My brother brought up that maybe McAdoo and Zeller value their education. Come on. Seriously? Can anyone really think that? 2 former McDonald's All-Americans value education over their career as basketball players? Give me a break. If that were true, then why do all of these kids go to the NBA before earning their degree? Barnes, Jones, Jones, and Sullinger are all sophomores, and all are headed to the NBA this year. It doesn't appear that they were valuing their education and made their decisions based on finishing their degree. So let's be honest, Zeller and McAdoo aren't doing that either. Both are almost definitely going to enter the 2013 NBA Draft.
Josh also threw out how Andrew Luck said he enjoyed his college classes and wanted to stay in college. Well Andrew Luck also majored in Architectural Design and was 3/4 of the way to attaining a legitimate, you have to be smart kind of degree. Completely different situation.
3. You can improve while you're in the NBA
Why do some people seem to think that the only place to make improvements is in college? Why can't guys improve while they're on an NBA roster? With NBA coaches, and an NBA strength and conditioning program, why wouldn't guys get better? If they've got the will to improve, why wouldn't they improve in the NBA? Don't get me wrong, I definitely think it's smart for lots of players to come back to school to improve their game in hopes that they'll improve their draft stock and be a better NBA player. But that's the thing, it's to improve their draft stock. All of these guys were projected lottery picks! Heck, they were all projected top 7 picks! What were they going to improve by staying in school? Barnes, Jones, Jones, and Sullinger all had question marks surrounding them preceding the draft last year, so seemingly, they all came back to school to improve in those areas. Well, after 1 year, those question marks all remain for each of those players. So what good did returning to college do?
For some players it is definitely in their best interest to come back to school and improve their overall games. Cody's brother, Tyler, returned to UNC for his senior season this past year and it was a fantastic decision for him. He improved and made himself a fringe lottery pick for the upcoming draft. But before last year's draft, Tyler was projected to be a mid-to-late 1st round draft pick. Cody Zeller and McAdoo were both projected top 7 picks. Which leads me to...
4. It's unlikely that they'll improve their draft stock by returning to school
Cody Zeller was considered the #6 overall prospect by Ford, and one NBA Executive said he would take Zeller with the number 2 pick after Anthony Davis. The number 2 pick! McAdoo was considered the 7th best prospect. By coming back to school, are they going to improve that? It's going to be extremely hard for those two players to move up even higher in mock drafts come this time next year. These two could also possibly incur serious injuries next year while in college that could have serious ramifications on their playing careers and where they're drafted next year.
I don't buy into the thought that guys can change their destiny as basketball players by staying in college longer. Guys that work hard and have the skills will make it in the NBA. Leaving early isn't going to change that. So what exactly was the logic behind these decisions? I guess only Zeller and McAdoo know. It's easy to criticize these decisions from my couch, but these guys are gambling millions of dollars by returning to school. I think that if you're a projected lottery pick, and a high lottery pick like these two, you HAVE to declare for the draft. C'mon guys, go on take the money and run.
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